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That form of migration is happening all over the world right now.

Virginia opossums, traditionally associated with the deep south, are now routinely spotted around Toronto, and are moving even further north. Armadillos, though still shy of the Canadian border, have crossed the Ohio River. American alligators, long stopped around Cape Hatteras, are now spotted in the tidal creeks of Virginia’s Eastern Shore. [1] Lobsters are moving north to the Canadian Maritimes from New England, and the blue crabs of Chesapeake Bay are filling the niches they're leaving behind.

It's much the same way in Europe. The European praying mantis used to be a hot-climate central Italian and Balkan insect. Now it's routinely spotted in Germany, has been found as far north as Latvia, and I found one in the usually-chilly Slovenian mountains just the other day!

Wherever you are on the map, look at the climate and ecosystem a few hundred miles south. That's likely where things are heading for you; it's a safe bet that the species that thrive there are the ones that are going to be best adapted to where you live in the second half of the 21st century.

[1] - https://defenders.org/blog/2023/12/why-we-almost-said-see-yo...

> Lobsters are moving north to the Canadian Maritimes from New England

Lobsters have been in the Canadian Maritimes for centuries.

Not doubting all this, but the possum thing is interesting.

They were in southern ontario in my youth in essex county ( late 80s ). And google says they were reports as far back as the 60s of scattered sightings.

> Wherever you are on the map, look... a few hundred miles south

The top half, at least. Sorry.

But not all species are mobile enough, and up north the winters are darker and the summers are lighter.

The shift will be incomplete, other species just go extinct.

In a time of rapid ecological change, highly mobile R-selected species have huge advantages.

And the mother f-ing ticks spreading everywhere on the US east coast!

One of the low-key benefits of Seattle is that the western slopes of the Cascade mountains are largely tick-free. One of the few places in the US that is like that. The east coast is crawling with ticks and always has been.

Maybe you're new here or spent most of your life in the city but at least in the mid Atlantic ticks have always been a problem.

I don't like pesticide but the ticks mean it isn't optional.

I have flanking neighbors who nuke their lawns every month with permethrin. They leave little business signs on the front lawn as spam. I have 14 apple trees and haven't grown an apple in years. It's fine, they are free to do anything and everything they like with their lawns. I just think it would be really neat to grow an apple again. You know, I'm not even a biologist and its probably a fluke I dont appreciate.

> they are free to do anything and everything they like with their lawns

In this case, what they're doing is clearly going beyond their lawn and negatively impacting you.

It's weird to suggest that "spraying poison on your neighbors" is deemed acceptable, as long as you're standing on your own property when you do it. If they were standing on their lawn throwing rocks at your apple trees, or shooting a gun at your apples, we wouldn't say they're free to do whatever they like. Heck, we don't even let people play loud music if it disturbs their neighbors.

We really need to update our mental models of harm and violence to account for modern possibilities. We should treat harm from pollution exactly as seriously as we treat harm from projectiles. Dying from cancer from your neighbors incidental pollution is just as bad as dying from a bullet from your neighbors errant gunshot.

Lyme disease is no joke man. You don't mess around with ticks.

If only we had a vaccine for it. Oh wait.

I'm not from somewhere where any of this is relevant so I was really curious why the comment you are replying to was downvoted into gray in 7 minutes (is Lyme disease a contentious issue??) and was ready to post a reply asking why but refreshed before I posted it.

I saw your comment and did a web search and the first hit was a US Centre for Disease Control page that says "A vaccine for Lyme disease is not currently available, the only vaccine previously marketed in the United States was discontinued by the manufacturer"

I'm more confused than ever. Can people stop vagueposting assuming everyone knows everything and just start saying what they mean?

The context on this site is often assumed to be American. I consider myself to be multicultural and I'm definitely guilty of that in some of my posts. So please accept a general apology.

There's a lot of misinformation about vaccines in the USA in addition to the many valid questions. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) is currently run by an individual who has superstitions about them, and is actively dismantling the professional efforts which further vaccination. Even if there was a vaccine available on the medical market in the US, because that is what we have in this country, a market for medical care, it's not clear that it would be accessible to everybody or the people who need it. The reason for this is because Americans do not have universal single-payer healthcare, and in fact, the President has recently enacted a law that cuts public healthcare for many millions of Americans, which would provide such a vaccine.

[delayed]

I think the issue is for the animals that actually need a colder climate and/or rely on ice/snow cover - a warming world won't give them a new space to move to (yet).

One anecdote/example that has stuck with me is a heard of caribou in the Canadian north. In winter, they typically dig through the snow to find plants to eat. One year, with rising temperatures, a large area was left with a thick layer of ice on top of the snow. Precipitation was falling as rain (instead of snow) due to warmer temperatures, then freezing overnight creating this thick layer of ice. The caribou couldn't punch through the ice and ended up starving to death resulting in a mass die off.

The ones that survived will have had more efficient metabolisms, or harder hooves that could break through the ice to get to the food, or could have learned a technique to cope. Hopefully their next generation will retain those traits or that culture to adapt.

Bigger animals have low numbers, larger ranges, less genetic variability, longer reproductive cycles, evolve much slower, and tend to go extinct much more reliably.

Or they’ll just go extinct. Not all species will adapt.

Yeah, animal species definitely successfully evolve over the course of a dozen years /s

I don't think GP's comment shows the lack of understanding of evolution that you're trying to point out: numerous similar events occurring to a range of herds over a period of time is exactly how that would happen isn't it?

Not to say I agree (or not) this particular case would be effective, or that it's fine for man's influence to cause it, or anything. Just I don't think they showed any sign of thinking caribou would suddenly evolve like a Pokémon to have a stronger hoof or something.

We may lose the sea ice and continental glaciers, but we'll probably still retain some ice with the intersection of extreme altitudes and extreme latitudes, at least for our lifetimes. A place like Denali is a lifeboat.

> A place like Denali is a lifeboat.

I think this is more accurate than you may have intended. It will be a single lifeboat, when the Titanic is sinking. Quite useful if you can get on it, and would guarantee survival, but for an awful small number relative to how many would like to be onboard.

Yep but the Titanic is the whole planet and there isn't a place to get yo safety on such a lifeboat.

These are great examples, I have some more ancedotal evidence in Canada, such as the creeping north of the wine industry. Used to be just Point Pelee, then Niagara, and now even the Ottawa Valley has wineries.

There have been wineries in the Okanagan Valley in BC since the 1800s which is farther north than Ottawa. So I am not sure that's a particularly good example.

Because the climate in the Okanagan is, and always has been, just like Ontario.

For those playing at home, it’s a desert-like (if not outright desert) region, and for bonus points it’s on the other end of Canada. Talk about a not “particularly good example”.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Okanagan

The Okanagan is thousands of kilometers away and the south end connects to the Mojave Desert.

This is not the great counter example you think it is.

The worst one is ticks and Lyme desease they carry

They are very common in Sweden, and have always been as far as I know. Are they supposed to be only common in Southern Europe??

I think anywhere there are warm-blooded animals there are ticks.

Not in western Washington. But they’re coming.

Don't know if birds count, but the egret population has exploded in the UK in the last 10 years.

There's zoos here that have them in their exotic bird sections. Always makes me smile as they are often visible even in London parks and rivers.

> "In the Red Sea, lionfish have predators. There are sharks and barracudas. Here, we have none of that."

I don't know when the sharks will move in, but this final sentence of the article points to a broader problem with climate change induced migrations: species don't move at the same pace. Plants move much slower than insects, and insects faster then their predators. This will create imbalances, which will lead to big problems with new diseases and pests.

Eventually things will re-calibrate, but a lot of species may go extinct and we could see a very long period of reduced biodiversity. It takes a long time to adapt.

I posted similar about UK waters the other day - it isn't as extreme here but it is noticeable, on Wednesday I completed a 2+ hour snorkel (with a wetsuit) when I'm often too cold after an hour.

Last night I snorkelled for 30 minutes with my son at 6pm without a wetsuit for either of us - the sea is that much warmer than average right now.

The heat is impacting the local catch of lobster and crabs, and increasing the number of new fish species here - and of jelly fish.

No problem, we will build a cooling system for the Mediterranean sea, so that tourism can keep going safely, planes keep covering the sky, consumers keep over-consuming, sigh..

Now we just need to see if air-conditioning also migrates north within Europe...

Heat pumps used for both heating and cooling are common in Sweden and have been for a long time.

> "In the Red Sea, lionfish have predators. There are sharks and barracudas. Here, we have none of that."

They are there, too. It's common to see barracudas, and big ones, in France now...

As for sharks, it depends on which ones they mean because there are sharks in the Med, but not tropical ones (yet).

At this point you just have to make peace with very bad futures. We will all die, and sometimes there is nothing you can do to prevent things. To save the world, more people have to be willing to fight for this than currently are.

The pure physics of the situation are staggering. The specific heat capacity of water is huge. The volume of ocean surface is huge. We are completely fucked. Everything you've read minimizing this or pretending we can continue with business as usual is a lie. Atmosphere SO2, enhanced rock weathering, ocean iron fertilization - it is horseshit. We had to reduce emissions 30 years ago, and simply chose not to.

The idea we can preserve our standard of living through technology is comically false. At this point, every large nation on earth would have to simultaneously cut emissions by more than half, we'd have to create a coordinated global Manhattan Project around alternative energy, and another global Manhattan Project around geoengineering (while not tipping ourselves into an ice age). It would require unprecedented leadership and cooperartion.

The US currently has the stupidest president it has ever had, surrounded by psychopaths that do not care about human suffering and act on base zero sum power calculus. The world is at war. The tech industry is greedily and actively accelerating this with crypto and AI buildout. The odds of the human species successful navigation of this extinction - at a civilization level - event is almost zero.

bondarchuk: I changed this, please delete your comment.

> I get downvoted for saying this,

You will if you open like this.

I get shunned by the tribe for saying this, but at this point you just have to make peace with very bad winters. We will all freeze, and sometimes there is nothing you can do to prevent the ice spirits. To save the tribe, more people have to be willing to hunt the great beasts than currently are.

The pure spirits of the situation are staggering. The cold breath of the ice demons is endless. The expanse of frozen wasteland is endless. We are completely cursed.

Everything the elders have told you about warmer lands or pretending we can continue following the old herds is a lie. Fire-keeping rituals, cave paintings for good luck, offering bones to sky spirits - it is all worthless. We had to migrate south 30 seasons ago, and the tribe leaders simply chose not to.

The idea we can preserve our way of life through better spear-making is laughably false. At this point, every large tribe on the tundra would have to simultaneously share their hunting grounds, we’d have to create a coordinated great alliance around mammoth hunting, and another great alliance around fire-keeping (while not angering the flame spirits into abandoning us). The tribe currently has the most foolish shaman it has ever had, surrounded by warriors that do not care about the starving and act on base dominance over the best hunting spots. The clans are at war. The young hunters are greedily and actively making this worse by overhunting the remaining herds and hoarding flint. The odds of our people’s successful survival of this great freezing - at a tribal level - catastrophe is almost zero.

Do you truly think that drastically changing the composition of the atmosphere in less than 150 years won't have dramatic effects on heating/cooling?

The CO2 PPM in the atmosphere has ~doubled since the industrial revolution.

You can mock this, but the data doesn't care what either of us think.

Current Mediterranean water temps are +6C above normal, as observed over peak human civilization in the 20th century. That is 6kWh per cubic meter, in just the Mediterranean. The article briefly mentions this extending 30m down.

To give the order of magnitude of the energy involved, the Mediterranean surface area is 2,500,000,000,000 sq m. At 6kWh cu m and 18m deep, that is the energy equivalent of about 390,000 megatons. Or about 8,000 Tsar Bombas. The Mediterranean is small, about 0.7% of ocean surface area.

I still have no clue at all how much a Tsar Bomba is in the context of the climate.

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Not sure I'm following. Is a 10 degree F increase in average summer temperatures over 25 years and a notably disrupted ecosystem 'summer'?

Game of Thrones summer, perhaps.